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2013 warmest year

2013 warmest on record

 

Ocean Acidification

Emissions of CO2 driving rapid oceanic acidification

 

Great barrier reef
Corals all over the world are threatened by rising rates of acidification in the oceans.
 

The world's oceans are becoming acidic at an "unprecedented rate", more rapidly than at any time in the past 300 million years. In their strongest statement yet on this issue, scientists say acidification could increase by 170% by 2100. They say that some 30% of ocean species are unlikely to survive in these conditions. The researchers conclude that human emissions of CO2 are clearly to blame. The study will be presented at global climate talks in Poland next week.

In 2012, over 500 of the world's leading experts on ocean acidification gathered in California. Led by the International Biosphere-Geosphere Programme, a review of the state of the science has now been published. This Summary for Policymakers states with "very high confidence" that increasing acidification is caused by human activities which are adding 24 million tonnes of CO2 to oceans every day.

Fossil fuel subsidies a reckless use of public funds

The world is spending half a trillion dollars on fossil fuel subsidies every year, according to a new report.

The Overseas Development Institute (ODI) says rich countries are spending seven times more supporting coal, oil and gas than they are on helping poorer nations fight climate change. Fuel subsidies to US farmers amounted to $1bn in 2011 says the ODI. Some countries including Egypt, Morocco and Pakistan, have subsidies bigger than the national fiscal deficit. The new report calls on the G20 to phase out the payments by 2020.

While there is no globally agreed definition of what a fossil fuel subsidy actually is, the report draws on a range of sources from the International Monetary Fund to the International Energy Agency. It details the range of financial help given to oil, coal and gas producers and consumers from national governments and through international development. What emerges is a complicated web of different types of payments in different countries. In the United States, for example, the government in 2011 gave a $1bn fuel tax exemption to farmers, $1bn for the strategic petroleum reserve and $0.5bn for oil, coal and gas research and development. Germany gave financial assistance totalling 1.9bn euro to the hard coal sector in the same year. And the UK gave tax concessions worth £280m in 2011 for oil and gas production.

Farming impact on Global Warming

Changing the way farmers plough their lands could have a big impact on global emissions of greenhouse gases.

Changing farming practices could play an important role in averting dangerous climate change says the UN. In their annual emissions report, they measure the difference between the pledges that countries have made to cut warming gases and the targets required to keep temperatures below 2C. On present trends there is likely to be an annual excess of 8 to 12 gigatonnes of these gases by 2020.

Agriculture, they say, could make a significant difference to the gap. This is the fourth such report, compiled by the United Nations Environment Programme (Unep) in conjunction with 44 scientific groups in 17 countries. It says the world needs to reduce total emissions to 44 gigatonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent by 2020 to keep the planet from going above the 2C target, agreed at a UN meeting in Cancun in 2010. But when all the pledges and plans made by countries are added together, they show an excess of between 8 and 12 gigatonnes per annum in seven years time, very similar to last year's report. To put it in context, 12 gigatonnes is about 80% of all the emissions coming from all the power plants in the world right now.

2012 Concentrations of warming gases breaks record

The WMO says that fossil fuel activities such as oil refining are driving atmospheric levels of CO2 to record highs. The levels of gases in the atmosphere that drive global warming increased to a record high in 2012. According to the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), atmospheric CO2 grew more rapidly last year than its average rise over the past decade. Concentrations of methane and nitrous oxide also broke previous records. Thanks to carbon dioxide and these other gases, the WMO says the warming effect on our climate has increased by almost a third since 1990. The WMO's annual greenhouse gas bulletin measures concentrations in the atmosphere, not emissions on the ground. Carbon dioxide is the most important of the gases that they track, but only about half of the CO2 that's emitted by human activities remains in the atmosphere, with the rest being absorbed by the plants, trees, the land and the oceans. Since the start of the industrial era in 1750, global average levels of CO2 in the atmosphere have increased by 141%. According to the WMO there were 393.1 parts per million (ppm) of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere in 2012, an increase of 2.2ppm over 2011. This was above the yearly average of 2.02ppm over the past decade. "The observations highlight yet again how heat-trapping gases from human activities have upset the natural balance of our atmosphere and are a major contribution to climate change," said WMO Secretary-General Michel Jarraud.

Oceans health declining quickly

Corals are likely to suffer as a result of the changes to our oceans

The health of the world’s oceans is deteriorating even faster than had previously been thought, a report says.

A review from the International Programme on the State of the Ocean (IPSO), warns that the oceans are facing multiple threats.

They are being heated by climate change, turned slowly less alkaline by absorbing CO2, and suffering from overfishing and pollution.

The report warns that dead zones formed by fertiliser run-off are a problem.

It says conditions are ripe for the sort of mass extinction event that has afflicted the oceans in the past.

It says: “We have been taking the ocean for granted. It has been shielding us from the worst effects of accelerating climate change by absorbing excess CO2 from the atmosphere.

“Whilst terrestrial temperature increases may be experiencing a pause, the ocean continues to warm regardless. For the most part, however, the public and policymakers are failing to recognise - or choosing to ignore - the severity of the situation.”

It says the cocktail of threats facing the ocean is more powerful than the individual problems themselves.

Coral reefs, for instance, are suffering from the higher temperatures and the effects of acidification whilst also being weakened by bad fishing practices, pollution, siltation and toxic algal blooms.

Global warming causing spread of crop pests

Climate change is helping pests and diseases that attack crops to spread around the world, a study suggests.

Researchers from the universities of Exeter and Oxford have found crop pests are moving at an average of 3km (two miles) a year. The team looked at more than 600 pests, including the Colorado potato beetle.

The team said they were heading towards the north and south poles, and were establishing in areas that were once to cold for them to live in.

The research is published in the journal Nature Climate Change.

Currently, it is estimated that between 10% and 16% of the world's crops are lost to disease outbreaks. The researchers warn that rising global temperatures could make the problem worse.

Dr Dan Bebber, the lead author of the study from the University of Exeter, said: "Global food security is one of the major challenges we are going to face over the next few decades.

"We really don't want to be losing any more of our crops than is absolutely necessary to pests and pathogens."

Trade transport

To investigate the problem, the researchers looked at the records of 612 crop pests and pathogens from around the world that had been collected over the past 50 years.

These included fungi, such as wheat rust, which is devastating harvests in Africa, the Middle East and Asia; insects like the mountain pine beetle that is destroying trees in the US; as well as bacteria, viruses and microscopic nematode worms.

70m sea level rise by 2050 - total surface ice thaw

melting-arctic-ice-global-warming

Humanity’s greenhouse gas emissions have been building up in the atmosphere and warming the planet for the past 150 years, dragging us into the uncharted Anthropocene, or age of man. Almost all of the planet's tropical mountain glaciers have retreated or disappeared in recent decades, including those in the South American Andes, Asian Himalaya, and African Rwenzoris.

The resulting meltwater is finding its way into the oceans. Globally, they are rising at an average of 3.5 millimetres per year – roughly twice the rate seen during the 20th Century. Sea levels are expected to rise by around 2.3 metres (7.6 feet) for every 1C of warming in the coming decades, according to a study published by scientists at the Potsdam Institute for Climate Research last month. Most of the rise in the past decade was thanks to thermal expansion – at higher temperatures the water takes up a greater volume because its molecules move about more. Now however glacial melt has overtaken thermal expansion as the leading cause of rising sea levels.

At the poles, change is underway of a magnitude so extreme that Earth hasn’t experienced its like for over 10 million years. The Arctic is warming at least twice as fast as anywhere else on the planet. One estimate suggests future average global warming of 2-3C, for example, would mean Arctic warming of 6-8C. This is partly because of the hot southerly winds bearing soot pollutants converging on the region. These particles absorb the sun’s rays and when they land on the surface attached to snowflakes they darken it and speed up melting.

Arctic methane 'time bomb'

Arctic melt: Increasing temperatures in the Arctic region are reducing sea ice cover and increasing the possibility of methane leaching from the sea bed. Scientists say that the release of large amounts of methane from thawing permafrost in the Arctic could have huge economic impacts for the world. The researchers estimate that the climate effects of the release of this gas could cost $60 trillion (£39 trillion), roughly the size of the global economy in 2012. The impacts are most likely to be felt in developing countries they say. Scientists have had concerns about the impact of rising temperatures on permafrost for many years. Large amounts of methane are concentrated in the frozen Arctic tundra but are also found as semi-solid gas hydrates under the sea. Price of gas Previous work has shown that the diminishing ice cover in the East Siberian sea is allowing the waters to warm and the methane to leach out. Scientists have found plumes of the gas up to a kilometre in diameter rising from these waters. In this study, the researchers have attempted to put an economic price on the climate damage that these emissions of methane could cause. Methane is a powerful greenhouse gas, even though it lasts less than a decade in the atmosphere.

2013 estimate of 2100 sea level rise due to melting ice

Antarctica-ice-thickness-2013

'Best estimate' for impact of melting ice on sea level rise

Researchers say they now have the most accurate estimate yet for the impact of the melting of ice sheets.

Researchers have published their most advanced calculation for the likely impact of melting ice on global sea levels.

The EU funded team say the ice sheets and glaciers could add 36.8 centimetres to the oceans by 2100.

Adding in other factors, sea levels could rise by up to 69 centimetres, higher than previous predictions.

The researchers say there is a very small chance that the seas around Britain could rise by a meter.

“The previous IPCC identified this gap in our knowledge, we've addressed that gap and what we've found is not scary” Prof Tony Payne, University of Bristol

The last Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report was highly detailed about many aspects of Earth's changing climate in the coming decades,

Advanced models

While they estimated that sea levels could rise by 18-59 centimetres by 2100, they were very unsure about the role played by the melting of ice sheets and mountain glaciers.

To fill the void, the EU funded experts from 24 institutions in Europe and beyond to try and come up with more accurate figures on the melting of ice sheets and glaciers in Antarctica and Greenland and how this might swell the oceans.

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